1,824 claims across 19 domains

Six decades of operations research on Markov Decision Processes applied to queueing systems consistently shows that optimal policies have threshold structure: "serve if queue > K, idle if queue < K" or "spawn worker if queue > X and workers < Y." This means even without solving the full MDP, well-tu

The standard square-root staffing formula (workers = mean load + safety factor × √mean) assumes Poisson arrivals where variance equals mean. Real-world arrival processes violate this assumption through burstiness (arrivals clustered in time) or smoothness (arrivals more evenly distributed than rando

Service systems with time-varying arrival rates face a fundamental tradeoff: fixed worker counts either waste capacity during quiet periods or create unacceptable wait times during demand spikes. The WinterSim 2018 paper demonstrates that simulation-based approaches can optimize this tradeoff by mod

MetaDAO's fair launch ICO structure uses pro-rata allocation where all participants receive proportional shares when demand exceeds supply. Across eight ICOs from April 2025 to January 2026, this mechanism resulted in $390M committed capital with $370M (95%) refunded due to oversubscription. Only $2

Polymarket and Kalshi are both targeting $20B valuations and establishing themselves as the two dominant US prediction market platforms. Their complementary approaches suggest a stable duopoly rather than winner-take-all dynamics:

Areal's September 2025 pilot tokenized a 2023 Mini Cooper in Dubai, raising $25,000 from 120 participants. The vehicle was purchased for $23,500 plus $1,500 insurance, then leased to a carsharing partner with 60% of net revenue distributed to token holders and 40% retained by the operator. The pilot

Markov Decision Process formulations that incorporate hysteresis properties (different thresholds for scaling up versus scaling down) outperform simple threshold heuristics in both execution time and accuracy for cloud auto-scaling problems. The MDP approach automatically discovers optimal hysteresi

Raydium has established a standardized liquidity farming template that projects adopt when launching tokens. The FutureDAO proposal demonstrates this pattern: 1% of total token supply allocated as rewards, farming period between 7-90 days per platform guidelines, and Concentrated Liquidity Market Ma

Robin Hanson's original futarchy proposal includes mechanism elements that are theoretically optimal but practically unusable. MetaDAO co-founder Nallok notes that "Robin wanted random proposal outcomes — impractical for production." The specific reference is to Hanson's suggestion that some proposa

The MetaDAO ecosystem reveals a hierarchy of value that differs from the academic futarchy narrative. Robin Hanson pitched futarchy as a mechanism for better governance decisions. MetaDAO's co-founder Proph3t says "the number one selling point of ownership coins is that they are anti-rug." This isn'

TVL (Total Value Locked) is the default metric for evaluating DeFi protocols. oxranga (Solomon Labs co-founder) argues this is fundamentally misleading: "stablecoin flows > TVL." A protocol with $100M TVL and $1M daily flows is less healthy than a protocol with $10M TVL and $50M daily flows — the fi

The standard crypto token launch uses time-based vesting to align team and investor incentives — tokens unlock gradually over 12-36 months, theoretically preventing dump-and-run behavior. Felipe Montealegre (Theia Research) argues this is structurally broken: any investor with market access can shor

Futard.io's permissionless launch data from its first two days reveals the filtering mechanism: 34 ICOs created by anyone, but only 2 reached funding thresholds (5.9% success rate). This is not a failure of the platform — it's the platform working as designed. The high failure rate IS the quality fi

Q4 2025 provided a natural experiment: crypto total market cap declined 25%, tokenization on speculative platforms dropped 40%, and the Fear & Greed Index fell significantly. Yet MetaDAO's launch volume grew from 1 launch to 6 launches quarter-over-quarter, and proposal volume grew dramatically. The

Citadel Securities' strongest counter-mechanism to the AI displacement doom loop: all prior general-purpose technologies — steam engines, electricity, internet — followed S-curve adoption patterns with slow initial uptake, rapid acceleration, then plateau as marginal returns diminish. The physical c

The "Engels' Pause" — named after Friedrich Engels's observation during early industrialization — describes a period when profit growth systematically outpaces wage growth despite rising productivity. This pattern has persisted in the US since the early 1970s, predating AI by five decades. Real medi

The harkl_ scenario envisions displaced workers building personal AI stacks, leaving extractive platforms, and redirecting economic activity through cryptographic rails — "people walked out the front door." The scenario is internally coherent and ideologically aligned with crypto-native sovereignty.

The standard hedge fund model treats the investment thesis as proprietary intellectual property. Secrecy is the moat. You don't publish your edge because others will front-run you.

Standard auction theory distinguishes two polar cases. **Private-value auctions** (art, personal goods): each bidder knows their own valuation, and valuations are independent. **Common-value auctions** (oil rights, spectrum licenses): the asset has one true value that bidders estimate with noise, cr

The [[early-conviction pricing is an unsolved mechanism design problem because systems that reward early believers attract extractive speculators while systems that prevent speculation penalize genuine supporters|early-conviction pricing trilemma]] implies that no single mechanism can simultaneously

Token launches face a fundamental pricing problem that no existing mechanism fully solves. The problem is two-sided: set the initial price too low and programmatic bots extract the difference instantly ($100M+ lost on Ethereum mainnet, $400M+ including MEV); set it too high and nobody buys. Static b

This is a methodological claim about what we can and cannot know from current data — and it cuts against both the bull and bear narratives.

Noah Smith's rebuttal to the Citrini thesis makes a structural argument: the leap from "AI will displace many jobs" to "AI will crash the economy" requires proving that every shock absorber between micro and macro fails. This is a much harder claim than Citrini presents.

The Aldasoro et al study (BIS, European firm-level data) provides the cleanest empirical test of the displacement thesis available: firms that adopt AI show approximately 4% productivity improvement, but show NO statistically significant reduction in employment.

Fixed token emission schedules — X tokens per block/epoch regardless of what happened — are the default in crypto. They're simple, predictable, and completely disconnected from value creation. A protocol that ships nothing and a protocol that doubles its TVL receive the same emissions. This creates